Another Sign of a Decelerating Economy
This has been our theme for 2014, a macro pivot toward the chronic economic deceleration that has been in play really, since 2001 when the age of ‘Inflation onDemand’ began. The rest has been rolling...
View ArticleUS Fed: Proudly Promoting Old Bad Habits
Leaving aside for a moment the compulsion for market participants to remain ‘risk ON’ that is an underlying effect of Fed policy of the last 2 years, what other effects may have been promoted by the...
View ArticleDon’t Bank on It
Guest Post by Michael Ashton Here is a post from Sober Look that has some really good charts on the changing asset mix at US banks. I was a little surprised that they didn’t point out the obvious...
View ArticleEconomic Myths
Guest Post by Steve Saville Our original intention was to explain where we agreed and disagreed with the article by Cullen Roche at “Pragmatic Capitalism” (is there any other kind of capitalism?)...
View ArticleMuted by the Hysteria; the ISM Report
Quietly February’s ISM came in stronger at a PMI of 53.2%. Breaking down the details new orders are notable, although inventories are backing up a little. Also of note, last month’s strongly rising...
View ArticleFebruary Employment Report: +175K
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- FEBRUARY 2014 Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor...
View ArticleISM Non Manufacturing, Prices Up
Much like the ISM manufacturing data, ISM services shows a creep going on in prices. With the economy continuing on what I view as strong footing (I know, I know… it’s gonna fall apart any day now…...
View ArticleJobs +192k, Unemployment @ 6.7%
What is it that John Mauldin used to call it, the muddle along economy? Muddle through? Whatever, in the mid 2000′s we muddled along (2004)… muddled along (2005)… muddled along (2006)… muddled along...
View ArticleJobs +288k
From BLS: THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- APRIL 2014 Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 288,000, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 6.3 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of...
View ArticleRaison d’être
Yellen stays upbeat but is watching housing Janet, the economy is fine. Jobs are gaining traction and the ISM’s both manufacturing and non manufacturing are stellar. Janet, didn’t they teach you...
View ArticleMarket to Janet Yellen
Janet, the stock market is trying to send you a message. Don’t listen! It is trying to tell you not to come with a pulled-in or surprise rate hike on the Fed Funds. Don’t listen to it! See the...
View ArticleAbout the ISM
[edit] Jeez guys, give me a break… ISM had a software screw up. Here’s the actual data. Most gold bugs root for rising prices and costs, which they’d call inflation. Today’s ISM continues a string...
View ArticleWhy the Fed Fears Uber?
[note] If you are experiencing issues with the site it is due to problems with the host server. Posting will probably be light until this can be resolved. Thanks for your patience. I actually think...
View ArticleSame Old Larry Kudlow
Back when Bush was president he used to always put lipstick on whatever pig the economy served up. No matter how bad the data, no matter the evidence in front of him Larry would just exist in his own...
View ArticleStumpf it
Those promoting the bad GDP data should listen to Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf who, like this cranky little spot in the financial media here at biiwii, thinks the US economy is “stronger than people...
View ArticleEconomic Contraction Road Map
Just a friendly reminder from your friends here at biiwii.com that we are in an economic contraction, not an expansion when viewing the big picture. Indeed, it is this site that has highlighted the...
View ArticleFebruary Employment Report: +175K
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- FEBRUARY 2014 Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor...
View ArticleMs. Yellen: GDP Says Hike!
Dear Janet, the Red Herring that was the Q1 GDP has now morphed into a 4% Q2 GDP. The economy is booming Janet and furthermore, the ladies laden with bags shopping at Macy’s pictured in the Bloomberg...
View ArticleIs Gary Shilling?
Sorry, I could not resist the title. Gary Shilling, an economist whose name I have heard over the years, has quite a body of work often revolving around Fed policy, GDP and deflation. The reason I...
View ArticleGold-CCI Ratio, etc.
Ssssshhhhh, while the hype and noise goes on in the broad markets about the big drop in stocks, we want to very quietly continue to follow macro indicators so that we do not get lost in any hysteria....
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